Monday, June 10, 2013

Shock Value: A Look at This Seasons Draft Steals

Shock Value
Zach Friedland

            When the fantasy baseball owners prepare for their draft, they go straight to the top for players to carry their squads.  Typically first round values like Joey Votto or Miguel Cabrera lead your team to victory, while you scour the late rounds for some talent to contribute to push your team over the top.  These five players were late round steals, who have more than outperformed their average draft position (ADP) spots.

Player/Team/Position/Average Draft Position/Average Draft Round (Yahoo Sports)

Chris Davis Baltimore 1B/OF 138.7 12.9
Davis, a power-hitting player with eligibility at two positions has long been known as a boom or bust prospect.  He entered the year following a successful campaign with concern only with his 169 strikeouts.  Despite still averaging about a strikeout per game, Davis leads the Majors in home runs with 20 and is second in the bigs in RBI’s.  Don’t expect to his split line to stay as high as his current .357/.440/.754 as his strikeouts should continue to push his average down closer to .310.  As a 13’Th round pick, Chris Davis projects as an immediate keeper for next season.

Jean Segura Milwaukee SS 246 22.2
            Segura was projected at a late round pick to undrafted free agent, but the Brewers rising star has done more than be a handy waiver-wire pickup.  The speedy shortstop is making headlines no one would’ve expected from a 23 year old undrafted prospect straight from the Dominican Republic.  Segura has erupted in his first chance in a starting role batting behind emerging star, Norichika Aoki.  In the two hole, Segura has produced 8 homers with 23 RBI’s and 31 runs to go along with 15 stolen bases.  This is highlighted by his absurd .344/.382/.541 split line and 6 triples.  Expect Segura to surge to a top 5 season among ML shortstops, so trade for him before the value is too high to acquire him.

Domonic Brown Philadelphia OF 245 22.1
            Brown has gotten a chance the previous two seasons in limited roles with an influx of injuries to Phillies teammates.  While he has not made the most of his chances in those two seasons, his performance was good enough to warrant a starting nod this year.  With job security, Brown has exploded onto the scene with 17 homers and 42 RBI’s.  His OBP has not jumped tremendously, but his average and slugging percentage have due to his power surge and a sense of responsibility with an otherwise anemic Phillies lineup with numerous injuries.  While the going is hot, jump on Domonic Brown.

Clay Bucholz Boston SP 215 19.7

            Bucholz is a starter that has always shown signs of extreme talent and confidence.  A steady starter for the Red Sox since 2007, the gangly Texan has exceeded expectations for a starter going between the 19’Th and 20’Th rounds of standard drafts.  Coming off a subpar season with a 4.56 ERA, .263 BAA, and 6.1 K/9, Bucholz has settled down this season.  He holds a 8.9 K/9, but don’t expect that to hold up as his history shows a regression to more of a 6-7 K/9 rate.  His ERA has plummeted to a stingy 1.62 and has dropped his WHIP from 1.33 to 1.02.  As a result, he has started the season 8-0 in his first 11 starts and teamed with Jon Lester to re-form to one of the top 1-2 punches in the Majors.  The Red Sox are 10-1 in his 11 starts and as a result, has fueled the team to a 35-23 record and a 2.5 game lead over the Orioles and Yankees.  

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