Buy Low, Sell High

We spend so much time prepping for that sacred Draft Day…and then it all becomes useless as soon as the first pitch of the season is thrown. While the draft is the single most important part of our fantasy baseball season, you can still turn your fortune around, either helping or ruining it, by how you maintain your squad.  “Know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em.” Or, if you are not as savvy as the character known by Kenny Rogers as “The Gambler,” then just read my articles and do as I say. Well, unless you would rather be the Houston Astros of fantasy baseball.

Buy Low:

Jay Bruce: Act fast because he has already starting picking up his game after a slow start. As one of the best young power hitters in baseball, Bruce has quietly improved his HR total in every season since his rookie year in 2008. Bruce has been a streaky hitter in his short, promising career and therefore his total of 1 HR in the month of April has all signs pointing up from here on out.

Jason Heyward: After a fluke stint on the DL (appendectomy), Heyward is starting to show us signs of the mega prospect he was 3 short spring trainings ago. While there isn’t a stat to prove it, Heyward’s bat speed is starting to pick up as shown (and heard) by the menacing force behind every ball that leaves his bat. Over his career, Jason has a batting average of 30 points higher over the second half of the season. The J-Hey kid will bring up his average in no time, so act now before it becomes obvious.

Zack Greinke: Fluky injuries are becoming the theme of this article, and none were more unpredictable than Zack and his collarbone. After a torrid start, Greinke was sidetracked by a DL stint which is surely scaring owners who have paid attention to his last 3 subpar starts. Look at these outings as rehab starts and go grab Greinke before he reverts to his opening season form.

Other Options: Matt Kemp, Giancarlo Stanton, David Price

Sell High:

Starling Marte: If you were smart enough to grab him in the later rounds of your drafts, I know it is going to be even harder to let him go because you just KNEW he was going to be good. That’s why you took him, right? Well, at least that’s what we are going to tell our friends while conveniently not mentioning the draft picks that didn’t work out. With a high K rate, low walk rate and not much plate discipline, look for his average to revert more towards the .263 that he batted in the month of May.

Josh Donaldson: Wait, who??? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josh_Donaldson You can thank me later for saving you a google search. Through my research, it was evident that Josh was the least known player on this list and that may be the only speed bump when trying to trade him. As a 27 year old with minimal major league experience we are going to have to expect some regression from the waiver wire star. Here is another helpful link that will help you sell Josh… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpqiyFPdHZ4 Every time you hear the word “quick chop” just replace it with “Josh Donaldson” and replace every type of food with the word “baseball.”

Nate McLouth: Compared to the Nate we have come to know in recent years, this McLouth is playing like one of the all time greats. McLouth has been all over the map during his inconsistent career and this is where the Buck Showalter magic ends. Get what you can and even if it doesn’t work out, you will be happy that he won't be on your team to destroy your team batting average come playoff time.

Other options: Patrick Corbin, Vernon Wells, Dexter Fowler

Shock Value: A Look at This Seasons Draft Steals

Shock Value

Zach Friedland

            When the fantasy baseball owners prepare for their draft, they go straight to the top for players to carry their squads.  Typically first round values like Joey Votto or Miguel Cabrera lead your team to victory, while you scour the late rounds for some talent to contribute to push your team over the top.  These five players were late round steals, who have more than outperformed their average draft position (ADP) spots.

Player/Team/Position/Average Draft Position/Average Draft Round (Yahoo Sports)

Chris Davis Baltimore 1B/OF 138.7 12.9

Davis, a power-hitting player with eligibility at two positions has long been known as a boom or bust prospect.  He entered the year following a successful campaign with concern only with his 169 strikeouts.  Despite still averaging about a strikeout per game, Davis leads the Majors in home runs with 20 and is second in the bigs in RBI’s.  Don’t expect to his split line to stay as high as his current .357/.440/.754 as his strikeouts should continue to push his average down closer to .310.  As a 13’Th round pick, Chris Davis projects as an immediate keeper for next season.

Jean Segura Milwaukee SS 246 22.2

            Segura was projected at a late round pick to undrafted free agent, but the Brewers rising star has done more than be a handy waiver-wire pickup.  The speedy shortstop is making headlines no one would’ve expected from a 23 year old undrafted prospect straight from the Dominican Republic.  Segura has erupted in his first chance in a starting role batting behind emerging star, Norichika Aoki.  In the two hole, Segura has produced 8 homers with 23 RBI’s and 31 runs to go along with 15 stolen bases.  This is highlighted by his absurd .344/.382/.541 split line and 6 triples.  Expect Segura to surge to a top 5 season among ML shortstops, so trade for him before the value is too high to acquire him.

Domonic Brown Philadelphia OF 245 22.1

            Brown has gotten a chance the previous two seasons in limited roles with an influx of injuries to Phillies teammates.  While he has not made the most of his chances in those two seasons, his performance was good enough to warrant a starting nod this year.  With job security, Brown has exploded onto the scene with 17 homers and 42 RBI’s.  His OBP has not jumped tremendously, but his average and slugging percentage have due to his power surge and a sense of responsibility with an otherwise anemic Phillies lineup with numerous injuries.  While the going is hot, jump on Domonic Brown.

Clay Bucholz Boston SP 215 19.7

            Bucholz is a starter that has always shown signs of extreme talent and confidence.  A steady starter for the Red Sox since 2007, the gangly Texan has exceeded expectations for a starter going between the 19’Th and 20’Th rounds of standard drafts.  Coming off a subpar season with a 4.56 ERA, .263 BAA, and 6.1 K/9, Bucholz has settled down this season.  He holds a 8.9 K/9, but don’t expect that to hold up as his history shows a regression to more of a 6-7 K/9 rate.  His ERA has plummeted to a stingy 1.62 and has dropped his WHIP from 1.33 to 1.02.  As a result, he has started the season 8-0 in his first 11 starts and teamed with Jon Lester to re-form to one of the top 1-2 punches in the Majors.  The Red Sox are 10-1 in his 11 starts and as a result, has fueled the team to a 35-23 record and a 2.5 game lead over the Orioles and Yankees.  

From Now to the All Star Break: Top Players

The month of June is Joyous time of the year, School is finishing up, summer vacations are just around the corner and the baseball season is already a third of the way through With the All Star Break only a month away. It is this time of year when we have a clearer view of what may be in store for the remainder of the season and are more realistic than optimistic for certain fantasy players’ production. So for June, I ask you to fire up the barbecue, grab a cold drink, dust off the patio furniture and enjoy my top players to start on any given day leading up to the All Star break.  

Dominic Brown OF, Philadelphia Phillies

Mentioned prior to the season as one of the top fantasy sleepers heading into 2013, Brown enjoyed a productive spring training followed by a relatively slow April with a line of 8 R, 3 HR, 11 RBI,0 SB, .233 AVG. Unlike prior seasons, the Phillies organizations stuck with him and he rewarded their faith by posting stellar numbers (17 R, 12 HR, 25 RBI, 3 SB, .303 AVG) while earning N.L player of the month honours. His success has continued into June and his recent production can no longer be considered a hot streak rather, expected numbers of a legitimate MVP candidate. The power and the tools are real and were main reasons why Brown was tagged a sleeper over seasons prior but now will remain a top 5 outfielder for the foreseeable future.

Carlos Gonzalez OF, Colorado Rockies

The top outfielder over the course this season, “CARGO” has been a model of consistency posting solid fantasy numbers month to month. A lot of critics will make excuses for his production based on Colorado’s thin air home advantage that causes the ball to explode off of bats into orbit turning average players into fantasy studs. Cargo however, is actually hitting better away from Coors Field much better in fact as he has 11 HR away and only 6 HR at home with a batting average 80 points above his home average. Typically as the season heads deeper into summer, the warm air at Coors provides a boost to hitters so I expect Cargo’s numbers to continue while hitting away and improve even more as the summer drags on which will make him the top outfielder in the game over the remainder of the season and is a must start in all contests leading up to the All-Star break.

Miguel Cabrera 3B, Detroit Tigers

I keep waiting for this mammoth perennial MVP and last year’s Triple Crown Winner to suffer an Albert Pujols like slump but he continues to show no signs of slowing down ever. Leading the Majors with 67 RBI and over the course of his 10 year career his split stats show more than 50 home runs in each month which suggest the production will remain and consider him the top infield and corner option play on any given day.

Jean Segura SS, Milwaukee Brewers

An unknown prior to the start of the season, Segura has proven to be Milwaukee’s best kept secret as he is the #2 Short stop in the majors in 2013 only behind Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki. In his first full season, Segura has been a .342 hitter and on pace for 30 HR and 40 SB. Over the last 30 days Segura has posted better fantasy numbers than Tulowitzki and while Troy offers better power than Segura, Segura can do more on the base baths and for our Amped Fantasy daily contests is a safer bet for points on any given day.

Chris Davis 1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles

Who is the top first baseman in the first 2 months of 2013? If you read the name above this line you may well be surprised that it’s not a familiar household name (Pujols, Fielder, Votto) but that of Baltimore’s Chris Davis, a once promising prospect who fizzled out in Texas and its hitter park of all places.

Texas is a distant memory for Davis however, who enjoyed a career year last year with 33 HR and 85 RBI in his second year with Baltimore. This year Davis already has 20 HR and 52 RBI which puts him on pace to almost double his previous career year. Although he is unlikely to hit over 60 home runs, his split stats show that he is a better hitter prior to the All-Star break than post so start him with confidence until then and expect slightly less but still solid production following the break.

Joe Mauer Catcher, Minnesota Twins

Minnesota has remained relevant over the course of what was expected to be a down year for them with aging or injured veterans and few prospects. Through this, Mauer has continued to be a consistent offensive centerpiece for them and while avoiding the injury bug so far and is a top 3 Catcher. Over the course of his career, the often injured Mauer has been a better pre-All Star hitter than post and in contests that require a catcher; Mauer is a top choice you can hardly find fault with. Mauer is a catcher that often receives starts at 1B and DH to keep him fresh as the season progresses so he is always less likely to be given a random day off.

Justin Sperdakes

Fantasy Expert

Top Perfomers: May

April can be the cruelest of months, just ask Josh Hamilton, Matt Kemp or any other underperforming high profile player who have battled to find their groove through the first month of Baseball. Their views might not be shared by the players listed below however, who have all had great starts to their season and more importantly helped many of our contestants win their daily matchups. To help provide you some winning insight, below I have named my top picks to help you win your matchups this weekend.

Catcher

Carlos Santana, Cleveland

Carlos has been on fire at the plat recently, after a relatively slow start in April. Carlos offers you plenty of pop this weekend as he faces off against division rival Minnesota Twins at home. Hitting the most homeruns of his short career against Minnesota, and drawing a pitching staff that currently sports a 4.45 ERA on the road this year should allow Carlos to continue his “evil ways” (Santana, 1969) which has seen him go 9 for 18 at the plate with 3 runs, 1 homerun and 4 RBI in the last 7 days while also chipping in 1 stolen base for good measure. Viva Carlos Santana.

Corner

Miguel Cabrera, Detroit

Miggy is an obvious choice here, as last years’ Triple Crown winner and annual MVP candidate, you can’t really argue with this choice on any given day. Cementing him as the top Corner infield play this weekend is the result of a road trip to Houston and their hitter friendly ball park and generous pitching staff. The Thursday to Sunday set should be batting practice for Cabrera, and is the safest play this week as the top corner player.

Note* if you are looking for an under the radar player for this spot only one player has been hotter in the past 7 days than Miggy and that is Edwin Encarnacion, of the Toronto Blue Jays with 8 runs, 6 homeruns and 9 RBI.

Infield

Jean Segura, Milwaukee

Our top rated Short Stop after April, Segura is a 5 tool player, that consistently provides fantasy points through his base running and hitting. A relatively unknown prior to the season, this Dominican Republic born player may soon be mentioned among the Reyes and Ramirez’s of his fellow country. For the season Segura is hitting over .300 with 13 runs, 3 homeruns, 9 RBI and 7 stolen bases.  He plays at home against St. Louis this week but all of his homeruns have been in Milwaukee and he is simply the best short stop play right now but may still be under the radar which could win you some contests this weekend.

Outfield

Nate McLouth

The journeyman outfielder currently with Baltimore has had a career rival so far this year at the plate. A hitter that often struggled with his average over his career batted .346 in April and is the highest scoring fantasy outfielder over the last week. Baltimore has been on a dreaded west coast trip that concludes with a series against the struggling Los Angeles Angels and its bottom 3 pitchers but McLouth is a road warrior who is posting better fantasy points away than at home this year. Currently McLouth is batting .593 this with 11 runs, 7 RBI, 2 homeruns and 4 stolen bases over the last 7 games and is a good bet to continue dominating against a weak Angels pitching staff.

Nelson Cruz

A solid outfielder and focal point of Texas’ offense, Cruz has been outstanding in Texas making Josh Hamilton a distant memory for Rangers fans. Cruz has always been a top fantasy outfielder that has been prone to injury and streakiness but this career .260 hitter is batting .306 after the first month and has contributed 20 RBI which is the third highest total among outfielders. Cruz, like all Texas players is assisted by a solid hitters park where he is a career .300 hitter. Against Boston this weekend at home, Cruz should continue to have success against Boston’s pitching staff as he is batting .529 against Jon Lester over 17 at-bats and has also had success against Felix Doubront and John Lackey and as a whole, Boston pitching struggled mightily from 2010-2012 in Texas. Play Nelson this weekend and you will “Cruz” to a payoff.

Amped Fantasy Guru

Justin Sperdakes

Updated Rankings: Top 20 at each position!

Position	Name	Team	Rank
1B/DH	Chris Davis	Bal	1
1B/DH	Prince Fielder	Det	2
1B/DH	Joey Votto	Cin	3
1B/DH	Paul Goldschmidt	Ari	4
1B/DH	Mark Reynolds	Cle	5
1B/DH	Edwin Encarnacion	Tor	6
1B/DH	Anthony Rizzo	ChC	7
1B/DH	Albert Pujols	LAA	8
1B/DH	Michael Cuddyer	Col	9
1B/DH	Allen Craig	StL	10
1B/DH	Mike Napoli	Bos	11
1B/DH	Billy Butler	KC	12
1B/DH	Adrian Gonzalez	LAD	13
1B/DH	James Loney	TB	14
1B/DH	Yonder Alonso	SD	15
1B/DH	Ryan Howard	Phi	16
1B/DH	Mitch Moreland	Tex	17
1B/DH	Justin Moreneau	Min	18
1B/DH	Kendrys Morales	Sea	19
1B/DH	Freddie Freeman	Atl	20
Find the rest of the rankings after the jump!

Top MLB Storylines to Follow in 2013

By: Justin Sperdakes

Each baseball season begins with a new series of storylines to follow throughout the season. This “buzz” is usually generated by a combination of spring training performance, offseason transactions and injuries. Below are the top five “fantasy relevant” storylines heading into a season full of them. 

The Replacements
The New York Yankees, long known for their perennial courtship of World Series Championships begin their season in a peculiar situation. They have the high-paid star sluggers as per usual, but the spring has not been kind to the likes of Curtis Granderson and Mark Texiera, uniting the star sluggers on the disabled list (DL) with legends Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. The Yankees brought in Kevin Youkilis, Lyle Overbay, Vernon Wells and Travis Hafner to provide some offensive power until their stars return from the DL. All of these “replacements” are shadows of their former selves but if either Wells or Youkilis have a strong April/May, they should continue to receive considerable playing time throughout the season and produce valuable fantasy stats.

Power Surge in the West

Considered a division with great pitching and pitcher-friendly parks with the exception of the Texas Rangers Ball Park in Arlington, the former four- team AL West has undergone a facelift that should produce more offense than in past seasons. For starters, a fifth team was added by moving the Houston Astros and their hitter-friendly park from the NL Central. Playing in Houston nine games a year while also hosting their weak pitching staff nine times should provide extra offense to Texas, Seattle, Los Angeles and Oakland. The second factor that should result in an overall increase in offense are the changes made to Seattle’s ball park(SAFECO) over the offseason in which they reduced their Left field distance by twelve feet and reduced overall fence height by nine feet. Seattle also added some power to the lineup in the offseason with Kendrys Morales, Raul Ibanez, Jason Bay and Michael Morse. Hitters from Seattle and Oakland could have increased fantasy relevance this year, while Texas and Los Angeles should continue to pad their stats.

Fading Aces

Once dominant front-line starts, Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum experienced down years in 2012 with each posting ERA’s above 4.40. Through spring, indications are that these two former flame throwers have lost some zip on their fastballs and thus reducing the effects of their secondary pitches. A common occurrence with starting pitchers and particularly power pitchers, once they lose “it”, they do not get “it” back. Some of them will re-invent themselves as finesse pitchers but the dominant “stuff” that once made them unhittable and fantasy studs are gone and therefore should be avoided for fantasy purposes unless they begin to dominate early in the season or come at a decent value.

Sophomore Slumps

Two first-year hitters posted spectacular seasons, living up to their hype and top prospect status. Bryce Harper and Mike Trout exceeded expectations, posting valuable offensive numbers despite their ripe ages below twenty-two.  This early success is not typical of a major leaguer and usually a player so young requires more minor league experience.  There is always talk about sophomore slumps in every sport, some experience it(A-ROD) and some don’t(Griffey) but it wouldn’t be entirely unexpected if either of these two players experienced extended struggles this season as pitchers and teams learn more about their tendencies. Mike Trout is a safer pick for continued success as the Angels added more protection in the lineup in the form of Josh Hamilton (and Pujols last year) which should reduce Trout’s pressure and allow him to see more quality pitches without being walked. Harper is another story, playing for a team (Washington) that lead the majors in wins last with 98, faces increased expectations with less protection than trout. Washington’s most notable addition is Denard Span, which is good but will not keep Harper from Pressing at times and putting too much of the teams weight on his shoulders. Bottom line with these two players is that right now Trout is the better and safer player, but Harper is still a top 10 value at Outfield and within a couple years could be the top slugger in all of baseball.

 Reloaded

Every offseason includes teams making headlining trades or free agent signings in hopes of contenting for a championship.  Offensively, the teams that made the biggest noise were Atlanta, Los Angeles Angels and Toronto. Atlanta added both BJ and Justin Upton to a lineup that already included stud sluggers, Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman. Toronto added Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio and Melky Cabrera and the Los Angeles Angels added Josh Hamilton. Josh should produce right away and continue to post top 5 fantasy stats for an outfielder. Toronto and Atlanta may struggle early with chemistry but should have many more run-producing opportunities from their new teammates.  For a more in-depth analysis of players that have switched teams this season, check out this post by one of our fantasy experts, Anthony.

Change of Scenery

By: Anthony Mulvihill

“This is a new year. A new beginning. And things will change.” ― Taylor Swift

Yup, I just used a Taylor Swift quote to start out a fantasy baseball article. What does Taylor Swift know about fantasy baseball? Well, maybe more than we think. In recent years we have seen many instances where a player has rejuvenated, thrived, or even saved their careers with a minor change in scenery. And now that I have captured my 13 year old female audience, lets take a look at how we can use her theory to help us win your league.

Jose Bautista made a minor alteration to his swing and led the league in HRs. AJ Burnett is a good example of how a change can help and hurt a player, from completely crashing and burning in New York and then saving his stock with a good season in small market Pittsburgh. Since it is impossible to find a constant trend when it comes to players switching teams, I have taken the liberty of breaking down the top 3 changes and how it should effect your rankings.

Justin and BJ Upton, Atlanta Braves - The brothers Upton were the topic of many conversations during this jam packed offseason. First, BJ signed an Atlanta franchise record for a free agent contract at 5 years, $75 million. Shortly after, Justin chose the Braves as one of the few teams he would waive his no trade clause for in order to play in the OF with his brother and Jason Heyward (Up, Up and JHey). There is surely something to be said about both players choosing to come to Atlanta and joining one of the most potent lineups in the National League. With both players scheduled to bat in the middle of the order, expect each to improve their RBI and HR totals of a year ago unless Andrelton Simmons struggles and BJ is moved to the leadoff spot, which will result in more runs and SBs. Either way, I see a major win-win for the Uptons and anyone who drafts them this spring.

RA Dickey, Toronto Blue Jays - Dickey has been a tremendous success story, going from career journeyman to Cy Young winner at the ripe young age of 38. Unfortunately, this is where the story takes a Vernon Wells-esque turn for the worse. The aging Dickey moves from the NL to the AL to one of the best hitters parks in the league and will be facing the lineups of a much stronger AL East division. In the words of fantasy analyst Taylor Swift, “It's hard to fight when the fight ain't fair.” Well there you have it folks, let somebody else overpay for his inevitable downfall.

Josh Hamilton, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - We all know how talented Josh Hamilton can be. Between injuries, addictions and relapses, its scary to think about how much potential Josh has wasted. Hamilton reported to camp in the best shape of his life, 25 pounds lighter and consuming less caffeine than usual. His new diet has led to a much cleaner lifestyle and will be key in maintaining his health throughout the course of the year. You are what you eat, which makes Josh fresh, healthy and...chicken? Hmmm...draft him safely in the first round and reap the benefits of a top 3 player.

Here are some other changes that will prove to be successful:

Jose Reyes, TOR - Batting at the top of the order for a very dangerous lineup

James Shields, KC - Workhorse with high K rate. Disclaimer: he is a much better second half pitcher.

Joel Hanrahan, BOS - Better team  = more save opportunities

Shin-Soo Choo, CIN - Moving to a hitters ballpark

Downgrade these offseason movers:

Zack Greinke, LAD - Injuries, inconsistency and social disorder... all bad for a big market team.

Melky Cabrera, TOR - Was nothing more than a 4th OF before PED scandal.

Michael Bourn, CLE - Speed has already begun to decline, leaving him with not much to work with.

By: Anthony Mulvihill

'Super' Comparisons: Who Gets the Start?

Super Bowl Sunday is approaching quickly and many fantasy owners have some big decisions to make.   Choosing between different players at the same position is a struggle throughout the entire season.  Many would think that at this point in the season, with two teams remaining, those decisions would  become easier, but that's not quite the case. We're going to do a little positional breakdown to help you make the right decisions and hopefully earn a few extra bucks to tide you over until next season at AmpedFantasy (or baseball season)!

Quarterback

              Joe Flacco                                                          Colin Kaepernick

The Facts:
Flacco had a mostly underwhelming season, despite it being a contract year for him.  Be he sure has stepped up in the playoffs.  He hasn't faced the most fearsome defenses, but he has done a spectacular job taking care of the ball.  In three games, he has 8 TD passes and has yet to throw a pick.  He has great confidence right now and deservedly so after out dueling Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in consecutive weeks.  The 49ers defense presents a tough challenge for him, but he should be a safe pick.

Kaepernick is a whole different animal.  He didn't take the reigns on the starting job until later in the season and he doesnt look like he'll be losing them any time soon.  He has a rocket arm, has shown excellent poise in his first year seeing significant playing time and is explosive on his feet, just punishing teams on the ground. He's only had 2 games this post season because of the bye week, but he has already amassed over 200 yards rushing, just about 500 yards passing and a total of 5 touchdowns.  The Ravens D isn't as fearsome as it once was, but you had better believe they will be firing on all cylinders for this last hoorah.

Advantage:  Flacco.  We think it's a close call here, but we're going to take Flacco based on experience, both in general as a starting quarterback but also as a team general in big games.

Running Backs

                                               Ray Rice  or  Frank Gore

It's another toss up here, both players run well and are fairly involved in the passing game too.  Gore, in his 2 games, has averaged about 100 yards a game and has score 3 TD's with a pair of catches.   Rice has gone over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of three games with 4 receptions and sprinkling in a pair of touchdowns.  

Standard Scoring: Draw.  Pick a name out of a hat.

PPR: Rice, we like his chances to get involved in the passing game more so than Gore.

Advantage: Rice.  We attribute this to Ray Rice having the potential to break of gigantic plays at any time and also to Frank Gore having Colin K in his backfield.

Wide Recievers

There only a few guy worth talking about here.  Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith, and Randy Moss.  We rank them in that order.  It is also worth noting that we think Dennis Pitta and Vernon Davis will both be big factors in the game on Sunday, so if you can play a tight end, we would suggest it.

Week 16 Top Plays

Quarterbacks

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys: Romo has been lights out lately and the Saints defense is terrible and while they had a great week against Tampa Bay that hasn’t been the norm this season. Dallas was able to shred the best defense in the league last week and so imagine what he is going to do against one of the worst. Romo is third in the league in passing with 4,269 yards passing and has been playing his best football as of late; expect more of it against the second worst pass defense in the league.

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers: Newton and the Panthers have been playing a lot better and while the Raiders shut-out Kansas City last week that isn’t saying much as the Chiefs are ranked 25^th in total offense. Newton has 3,451 yards with 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions but he also has 647 yards rushing with seven rushing touchdowns. I suspect Newton will have a big week against the Oakland especially after destroying the Chargers Sunday.

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: The Colts are playing for a playoff spot this week, so expect everything the Colts have and then some. Luck has 3,978 yards passing and while his touchdowns and interception ratio isn’t the best expect him to be able to shred the Chiefs this weekend. The Colts would like to wrap up a playoff spot this weekend and Luck should have a monster game against a team that is headed for the first overall pick.

Running Backs

DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys: Murray has scored a touchdown in three straight games and was able to get 81 yards rushing against the Steelers last week so expect him to gash the second worst rushing defense in the league. I can’t see the Saints being able to stop Murray this weekend, while they were able to stuff Doug Martin, I chalk that up to divisional opponents playing each other tough. The Saints have been able to stop only a few teams this season and the way the Cowboys are playing I can’t see it happening.

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: Peterson is on pace to pass Eric Dickerson’s all-time rushing record for a single season, let’s remember Peterson torn his ACL and MCL in week 16 of last season. Peterson is the only running back averaging over 100 yards a game with an of  129.4 yards a game on the ground and he seems like he is getting stronger each week. I wouldn’t be surprised if Peterson gets close to another 200 yards rushing and one to two touchdowns on the ground.

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens need to get back to basics and give the ball to Ray Rice and when the Ravens give it to him more than 25 times a game they are nearly unbeatable. Rice has 1,031 yards rushing and is strong safety net for Joe Flacco; if the Ravens want to end their three-game losing streak, expect a heavy dose of Rice.

Wide Receivers

Brandon Marshall, Chicago Bears: The Bears are reeling and their one constant this season has been Marshall, who has just been lights out. Marshall has league high 107 receptions for 1,398 yards with 10 receiving touchdowns. Arizona finally got a win last week against the Lions, so don’t be surprised if they don’t play too well.

Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys: Bryant has been on a roll lately and has scored a touchdown in six straight games and I suspect that the trend will continue against the league’s worst defense the Saints. Bryant is tied for third in the league with 10 receiving touchdowns not to mention he’s tied for the seventh most receptions with 79 and has 1,087 receiving yards, so expect a big day from him.

Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins: When Pierre Garcon is healthy is one of the best wide receivers in the game and he has proven to be a deadly connection with RG3 or Cousins, it doesn’t matter to him. The Redskins are right in the playoff mix and the Eagles have totally fallen apart, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Garcon have 100 receiving with one or two receiving touchdowns.

Sleeper of the Week: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks have been on a tear the last two games and have a chance to pull within a half a game of the NFC West lead. Last week showed that San Francisco could be scored on if you open up the field on them and expect Wilson to try and do that this Sunday night. Wilson has been deadly in the air with 21 touchdowns and only nine interceptions and last weekend he showed some of his running skills, as he was able to score three on the ground last weekend against the Bills.

By Michael Ferraro

Week 14's Best Plays

Quarterback

Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Eagles have been awful against the pass the past few weeks and the whole team is a disaster. Freeman has just over 3,000 yards passing and has 23 touchdowns and only eight interceptions; he should tear into the Eagles, which has shown no ability to stop anyone. While the Eagles are ranked in the middle of the pack in pass defense it seems like they have been phoning it in the past few weeks.

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: Luck is fourth in the league in passing with 3,596 yards passing and while his touchdown to interception ratio hasn’t been good but he is going up against a bad Titans defense. The one problem with Luck is the turnovers but that should be expected, as he is a rookie but a great rookie. The Colts don’t have the best running game, so expect them to focus more on the passing game where Luck has been able to excel.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: Rodgers is having another great season with 29 interceptions and only nine interceptions, he also has 3,124 yards passing and has been able to have another great season. The Lions are giving up an average of 26.2 points a game and give up an average of 353.4 yards of total offense a game and are in the bottom half of the league in total defense in every category. I expect Rodgers to have a big game and the Packers will continue the Lions downward spiral this season.

Running Backs

Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins: The Ravens have been terrible so far this season against the run and The Redskins are the league’s best rushing team. Morris has over 1,100 yards rushing and with Robert Griffin III, the Ravens should easily give up more than their average of 125.8 yards a game on the ground. Morris is currently third in the league in rushing and is averaging 4.8 yards a carry and has six rushing touchdowns on the season.

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: Peterson torn his ACL late last season and he is even better than before, he is averaging 120.5 yards a game and already has 1,446 yards rushing and it’s only week 14. No defense has been able to stop Peterson and even though he facing Chicago this week shouldn’t give Peterson trouble. It’s a race between Peterson and Manning for comeback player of the year, they should both get it as nobody expected either to be this good this season.

Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams: Jackson is having probably his worst season so far but the Buffalo Bills are ranked 30^th against the run this season. While they have gotten better, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jackson ran for over 150 yards and has at least one rushing touchdown this week.

Wide Receivers

Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos: Oakland has been terrible this season and has given a ton of points recently. Thomas and Manning should have a field day against the horrible Oakland defense. Thomas has 1,114 yards receiving and eight receiving touchdowns on the season and it’s only week 14. I expect Thomas to get at least 100 yards receiving and should get at least one receiving touchdown. Oakland defense is the easiest to score on in the league giving up 31.3 points a game.

Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts: Reggie Wayne’s career is resurgent with Andrew Luck at quarterback and it helps facing the 31^st ranked scoring defense. The Titans are giving up 29.9 points a game and Wayne should catch and run all over them this week. Wayne has 88 receptions for 1,156 yards and has three receiving touchdowns; I wouldn’t be surprised to see that total rise this week.

Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions: What is there to say about Calvin Johnson, he is a just a beast and has 86 receptions for 1,428 yards receiving and has five receiving touchdowns. The Lions pass more than any other team and I can’t see that changing this week, especially if they get down big early. Johnson is averaging 119.0 yards a game by far the most in the league and suspect that number will rise or stay very close to that number and I wouldn’t be surprised if Megatron made it into the end-zone this week.

Sleeper of the week

Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers: Jennings has been a big fantasy let down this season because he has been hurt for so much of it but he has a chance this week to show he’s healthy now. Jordy Nelson has all but been ruled out against the Lions this week and I expect Aaron Rodgers to go to Jennings more this week. The Lions defense has been awful this season and if there is a game that Jennings to show he still has it, this would be the ideal week for fantasy owners that have held onto all season.

Amped Plays of the Week: Edition 13

 Quarterbacks

The No Brainers

Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, RGIII, Drew Brees.

Take a Chance: 

Matthew Stafford, Lions:  This kid torched the Houston secondary for over 440 yards with a pair of scores on thanksgiving.  With the Colts coming to Ford Field this weekend, I would expect Stafford to drop a bit in the yardage department, but we like his chances to toss 3+ TD’s.

Colin Kaepernick, 49ers:  Too soon?  We don’t think so.  He has showed incredible poise and a willingness to stay in the pocket and make the big play with his rocket of an arm.   Combine that with his freakish ability to make plays with his feet and he’s a must start for any team.  Not to mention he’s playing St. Louis this week, the very team that gave him his opportunity to play by knocking out Alex Smith just over 2 weeks ago.  He put 16 fantasy points in his limited snaps that game, expect much more this week.

Take a Seat:

Tony Romo, Cowboys:  Impressive stat line last week, 440 with 3 scores and a pair of INT’s.   Best game of the season so far.  Too bad it was against one of the worst pass defense’s out there.  Philly is coming to Dallas next week and you might be tempted to give Romo the nod because of how the Eagles are reeling and have lost 7 straight.  Don’t  be fooled.  The Eagles defense has talent and could show up any given week.  Considering the bad blood between these teams, I wouldn't be surprised if this were that week.

Running Backs

The No Brainers

Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin, Frank Gore.

Take a Chance

CJ Spiller, Bills: Spiller has been incredibly efficient with his carries and for the most part pretty productive, but he hasn’t found the endzone in 5 games.  I’m sure he’s had this home game vs Jacksonville circled on the schedule, it’s a great slump buster.  Whether it’s in the passing game or the running game, this man will find pay dirt this week.  Don’t fret about Fred Jackson, he is the second option whether they admit to it or not.

Chris Johnson, Titans:  We know, this guy is frustrating, right?  Why would you play him against a stout Houston defense? Well, he’s already shown he can run on them.  He ran over and around the Texans for 140+ yards on their own turf earlier in the season, this time he get’s them at home.  The other factor?  The Titans have actually no choice but to get CJ2k involved in every way possible if they want to win.  Pass game, run game, you name it.

Take a Seat

Beanie Wells, Cardinals: Wow this guy came back and put up 16 points in his first game back!  Must have some fresh legs!  False.  Same old Beanie.  He put up a cute 48 yards on 17 carries (that’s a whopping 2.8 YPC!)  take out his 2 touchdowns, which you cant count on every week, and you’ve got nothing.  Please, temper you expectations for Beanie Wells.

Wide Receivers

The No Brainers

Aj Green, Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne.

Take a Chance

Stevie Johnson, Bills:  Stevie J puts up consistent yardage and reception numbers week in and week out but he hasn’t been able to buy a touchdown the past few games.  Look for that to change against Jacksonville this week.  It hasn’t been like Fitzpatrick hasn’t been looking for him, they just haven’t connected in a while.  1 TD, maybe 2.  Take it to the bank.

Hakeem Nicks, Giants:  Nicks had a productive game last week, hauling in 5 catches for 77 yards and a touchdown.  This might mark the official return to health for him and if that’s the case, he will only get better.  Where better to continue his streak than in Washington next week? 

Take a Seat

Steve Smith, Panthers: Old reliable just hasn’t been the same.  He doesn’t stretch the field as much as he once did.  His catch and yardage outputs are pretty average.  He would be worth a look if he ever scored touchdowns, but he doesn’t.  He’s got just one all season long.  Avoid if you can.

Tight Ends

The No Brainers

Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Jimmy Graham.

Take a Chance

Jermaine Gresham, Bengals: Gresham has been getting a lot of looks from Andy Dalton in the middle of the field and he’s been taking advantage.   He’s had 2 touchdowns in his last 3 games and came just a yard short of another.  He’s a good bet for a score if you need a tight end for a week.

Heath Miller, Steelers:  Whether Roethlisberger is back or not, Miller is going to be involved in the offense more in the coming weeks.  He’s going to be the safety valve for whomever is under center, just look at his 6 catches from Charlie Batch last week.

Take a Seat

Aaron Hernandez, Patriots:  With Gronk out, this would have been his time to shine and I’m sure he would have if he wasn’t hurt.  He’s a great player but you can’t trust an injury like this that can be aggravated on any play, even without contact.  He could be a feast or famine type play….just be ready for a famine.

Mike’s Week 13 Optimal Offensive Explosion Roster

Quarterback:  Aaron Rodgers

Wide Receiver: Calvin Johnson

Wide Receiver: Reggie Wayne

Running Back:  Arian Foster

Mike Powers

Week 12 Must Starts

Quarterbacks

Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals: There are multiple reasons why Andy Dalton is a smart play this week, first off is that the Oakland Raiders defense has been absolute terrible over the past three games.       While Dalton’s numbers are very good for a second year player, this start is more of statement to how awful the Raiders defense has been. Over the past three games Oakland has given up 42, 55 and 38 over the last three weeks.

Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos: Manning is almost a lock for comeback player of the year and is a strong candidate for MVP, along with Tom Brady. So far on the season Manning has 2,975 passing yards and has amassed 24 touchdowns and only thrown seven interceptions with a passer rating of 106.2. These numbers coupled with the Broncos playing the Chiefs make Manning one of best plays of the week. Expect Manning to throw more with McGahee out with a torn MCL, who expects to be out six-to-eight weeks.

Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: On paper this looks like a total mismatch, Ryan after coming off the worst game of his career against a Buccaneers defense that has been the worst in the league against the pass, but Freeman has the hot hand. Freeman has had six straight games with at least two passing touchdowns, four of those six games he has three passing touchdowns. Freeman will be hard for the Falcons to contain; it won’t be as easy as John Skelton or his back up, Arizona’s third string quarterback.

Running Backs:

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens: I don’t see Rice getting only 40 yards again this week even though the Chargers are one of the better rushing defense, ranked third in the league allowing 87.9 yards a game. Rice isn’t a running back that has multiple bad games in a row and San Diego might have a defensive letdown after losing a big divisional game against the Broncos last week.

Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers are the league’s best rushing team going against the leagues worst rushing defense. Gore should be able to gash the Saints through the ground and the 49ers are very run oriented so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get 100-plus yards on the ground and haul in a few receptions.

Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans: The Jaguars defense was horrible last week, while most of that was through the air but the Jaguars seem like they lose a different way each week. I expect to Johnson to have a big game especially since the Titans don’t have a receiver like Andre Johnson but then again not many teams do.

Wide Receivers:

Brandon Marshall, Chicago Bears: I only like Marshall against the Vikings this week if Cutler is back in the lineup next week. The Bears looks terrible Monday night and Marshall was still able to get a receiving touchdown even though he had two receptions for 21 yards and a receiving touchdown. Expect Marshall to return to form this week and have a big game against a divisional opponent with a lot of playoff implications involved.

A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals: One of the league’s best young receivers is going up against a defense that is reeling. Green is having a pro bowl season with 64 receptions with 911 yards receiving with 10 receiving touchdowns. Oakland has been eaten alive the last three weeks and I believe that it will continue especially through the air, as the Bengals have been able to do nothing on the ground as of late.

Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints: This might seem like a bad play especially since the 49ers have one of the leagues best defenses but Drew Brees is a million times better than Jason Campbell. Brees has thrown a touchdown in 53 straight games and I can’t see that changing this week and I believe Colston will benefit from that. Colston has 51 receptions for 721 yards receiving and seven receiving touchdowns.

By: Michael Ferraro

Week 7 Top Plays

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: It’s hard not to play Rodgers coming off a six-touchdown performance against one of the better defenses in the league (Houston). I suspect he will have a big game even without Greg Jennings. While the Rams rank in the top five in pass defense, they haven’t come up against someone at Rodgers level.

Eli Manning, New York Giants: This is an easy choice, Manning has been lights out and the Redskins have been horrible against the pass. Eli should have all of his weapons at wide receiver, even though he might be without Ahmad Bradshaw. I expect Manning to pass 300 yards passing but division games are tough, as the Giants and Manning were horrible against the Redskins last season.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo Is due for a bust out game and it should help that he is playing against the Panthers who are in the bottom half of the league in pass defense. Romo should benefit from a good solid running attack even without star DeMarco Murray, Felix Jones should be able to step in and have a solid game.

Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Freeman had a huge game last week and even though he is an erratic, every team they have played so far has shred the Saints. The Saints are ranked 26^th in the NFL in pass defense and give up an average of 283.2 yards a game and have surrendered nine touchdowns and only produced three interceptions.

Running backs

Arian Foster, Houston Texans: The Ravens are having a lot of problem stopping the run and the Kansas City Chiefs exploited that and so did the Dallas Cowboys when both teams ran for over 200 yards against the Ravens.  It doesn’t help Baltimore’s cause with the loss of Webb, Ray Lewis, possibly Ed Reid, but they are getting Terrell Suggs back. I expect Foster to run all over the Ravens and their poor defense will cost them against the Texans this week.

Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans: Johnson finally had a decent game last week against the Steelers even though he didn’t get the rushing touchdown. The Bills have been awful in rush defense, ranking last in the NFL giving up a whopping 173.5 yards a game and allowing nine rushing touchdowns. I expect that Johnson might finally have a break out game against the Bills this week.

Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders: McFadden gets to face the 30^th ranked rushing defense this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars who are giving up 163.0 yards a game and have allowed seven rushing touchdowns this season. I can’t see the Jaguars being able to stop McFadden if the Raiders give him his touches.

Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins: The Giants have been average in the rushing attack this season and Washington has been one of the best running teams this season but their stats are a bit skewed with Robert Griffin III playing quarterback. I still expect Morris to get close to 100 yards unless they get down a lot early but I doubt that will be the case.

Wide Receivers

Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints: Only Washington has a worse pass defense than Tampa Bay, so I suspect Drew Brees and the Saints will be able to put big numbers against the Buccaneers this weekend. Colston is a beast when he gets going and should be hard to stop this weekend. The Saints have the top rated pass offense and they are playing the second to worst pass defense do the math.

Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts: Wayne doesn’t seem to take that Andrew Luck took over for Peyton Manning as he is just shredding opposing defenses this season. It doesn’t hurt when you are facing off against the Browns who are an average pass defense but it seems like they have been shredded the last few weeks.

Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings: Harvin is having a pro-bowl caliber season and is a dual threat as he can come out of the backfield and run for big yardage. Arizona has a good defense but I think Harvin is just better and will be able to expose some of the weaknesses in the Cardinals secondary.

Victor Cruz, New York Giants: When Manning and Cruz are on, no one in the NFL is better than these two right now if they are clicking on all cylinders. With the Redskins pass defense, along with Manning who is having one his best passing seasons to date, it’s hard not to play Cruz this week, especially at home where he tends to play his best.

How Much Longer Can You Keep These Underachievers?

       If you have been an owner of Chris Johnson this year, you have been very displeased with his effort this year.  Same would go for Antonio Gates, who hasn’t had much to talk about so far this year.  Many others would fit into this role and it is time to take a look at your fantasy team going into week five with some well-known players.  Here we take a look at players who are struggling, and how they project going forward.

Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee: Johnson thus far has been a disaster for fantasy owners, as he has only 27 points in a regular public league this year.  The next couple of games do not look very promising for Johnson either to drastically increase his total as the Titans face Minnesota and Pittsburgh.  The only games I would recommend playing Johnson is Buffalo, and both Indianapolis games.  Otherwise try to get him for trade bait with someone who believes Johnson will break out.

Ryan Matthews, RB, San Diego: Matthews is a bit of a mystery, mainly because he was injured throughout the pre-season and that hampered his early season stats.  Matthews only has 14 points in a public standard points league and the injury and the success has stalled Matthews.  The difference between Matthews and Johnson though is that Matthews will improve, and it won’t take long for him to.  This weekend is New Orleans, who is terrible defensively, and will play opponents like Cleveland, Tampa Bay and Oakland for him to get better stats.  If you still have Matthews, his outlook is very bright, assuming he stays healthy.

Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago: Cutler is capable of producing games like he had against Dallas, but also games like he had against Green Bay.  I would expect against Green Bay, Houston, Seattle, San Francisco and Arizona to have everyone sit Cutler, but the other seven games that Cutler will rack up many points and is a high start priority.  In a short sentence, approach with caution to starting Cutler but as long as you play the matchups right and he keeps his head in check, he will be just fine for you.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona: It’s hard to picture Fitzgerald as a guy underperforming so far this year, but it has a lot to do with a lot of defenses doubling up on him and leaving others open in a suddenly high-powered Cardinals offense.  Even with Fitzgerald’s stats not being so high, I would not worried on this bit, he is one of the game’s best and will get points very soon and in bunches.

Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego: This is a double edged sword with Gates.  In many ways he is looked at defenses more since the Chargers lost Vincent Jackson over the off-season, so they have to look at different receivers to produce, so it is a mass amount of reasons why the tight end has struggled thus far.  I would not expect those struggles to continue much further as Gates is still one of the favorite targets for quarterback Phillip Rivers.  Keep him around and in the lineup and await the best.

Pittsburgh’s Defense: If you have a league where there are defenses then it would be very frustrating for an owner of the Pittsburgh defense to have the results they have had.  Only five sacks and three takeaways have been to show for this year for the Steelers.  They will get chances in the future as Philadelphia, Tennessee, and Cincinnati do not feature the best offensive lines, but they will need to get turnovers as three just is not enough.  I would approach with caution going forward with Pittsburgh’s defense.

By: David Folz