Monday, June 10, 2013

Buy Low, Sell High

We spend so much time prepping for that sacred Draft Day…and then it all becomes useless as soon as the first pitch of the season is thrown. While the draft is the single most important part of our fantasy baseball season, you can still turn your fortune around, either helping or ruining it, by how you maintain your squad.  “Know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em.” Or, if you are not as savvy as the character known by Kenny Rogers as “The Gambler,” then just read my articles and do as I say. Well, unless you would rather be the Houston Astros of fantasy baseball.

Buy Low:

Jay Bruce: Act fast because he has already starting picking up his game after a slow start. As one of the best young power hitters in baseball, Bruce has quietly improved his HR total in every season since his rookie year in 2008. Bruce has been a streaky hitter in his short, promising career and therefore his total of 1 HR in the month of April has all signs pointing up from here on out.

Jason Heyward: After a fluke stint on the DL (appendectomy), Heyward is starting to show us signs of the mega prospect he was 3 short spring trainings ago. While there isn’t a stat to prove it, Heyward’s bat speed is starting to pick up as shown (and heard) by the menacing force behind every ball that leaves his bat. Over his career, Jason has a batting average of 30 points higher over the second half of the season. The J-Hey kid will bring up his average in no time, so act now before it becomes obvious.

Zack Greinke: Fluky injuries are becoming the theme of this article, and none were more unpredictable than Zack and his collarbone. After a torrid start, Greinke was sidetracked by a DL stint which is surely scaring owners who have paid attention to his last 3 subpar starts. Look at these outings as rehab starts and go grab Greinke before he reverts to his opening season form.
Other Options: Matt Kemp, Giancarlo Stanton, David Price

Sell High:

Starling Marte: If you were smart enough to grab him in the later rounds of your drafts, I know it is going to be even harder to let him go because you just KNEW he was going to be good. That’s why you took him, right? Well, at least that’s what we are going to tell our friends while conveniently not mentioning the draft picks that didn’t work out. With a high K rate, low walk rate and not much plate discipline, look for his average to revert more towards the .263 that he batted in the month of May.

Josh Donaldson: Wait, who??? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josh_Donaldson You can thank me later for saving you a google search. Through my research, it was evident that Josh was the least known player on this list and that may be the only speed bump when trying to trade him. As a 27 year old with minimal major league experience we are going to have to expect some regression from the waiver wire star. Here is another helpful link that will help you sell Josh… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpqiyFPdHZ4 Every time you hear the word “quick chop” just replace it with “Josh Donaldson” and replace every type of food with the word “baseball.”

Nate McLouth: Compared to the Nate we have come to know in recent years, this McLouth is playing like one of the all time greats. McLouth has been all over the map during his inconsistent career and this is where the Buck Showalter magic ends. Get what you can and even if it doesn’t work out, you will be happy that he won't be on your team to destroy your team batting average come playoff time.

Other options: Patrick Corbin, Vernon Wells, Dexter Fowler


Shock Value: A Look at This Seasons Draft Steals

Shock Value
Zach Friedland

            When the fantasy baseball owners prepare for their draft, they go straight to the top for players to carry their squads.  Typically first round values like Joey Votto or Miguel Cabrera lead your team to victory, while you scour the late rounds for some talent to contribute to push your team over the top.  These five players were late round steals, who have more than outperformed their average draft position (ADP) spots.

Player/Team/Position/Average Draft Position/Average Draft Round (Yahoo Sports)

Chris Davis Baltimore 1B/OF 138.7 12.9
Davis, a power-hitting player with eligibility at two positions has long been known as a boom or bust prospect.  He entered the year following a successful campaign with concern only with his 169 strikeouts.  Despite still averaging about a strikeout per game, Davis leads the Majors in home runs with 20 and is second in the bigs in RBI’s.  Don’t expect to his split line to stay as high as his current .357/.440/.754 as his strikeouts should continue to push his average down closer to .310.  As a 13’Th round pick, Chris Davis projects as an immediate keeper for next season.

Jean Segura Milwaukee SS 246 22.2
            Segura was projected at a late round pick to undrafted free agent, but the Brewers rising star has done more than be a handy waiver-wire pickup.  The speedy shortstop is making headlines no one would’ve expected from a 23 year old undrafted prospect straight from the Dominican Republic.  Segura has erupted in his first chance in a starting role batting behind emerging star, Norichika Aoki.  In the two hole, Segura has produced 8 homers with 23 RBI’s and 31 runs to go along with 15 stolen bases.  This is highlighted by his absurd .344/.382/.541 split line and 6 triples.  Expect Segura to surge to a top 5 season among ML shortstops, so trade for him before the value is too high to acquire him.

Domonic Brown Philadelphia OF 245 22.1
            Brown has gotten a chance the previous two seasons in limited roles with an influx of injuries to Phillies teammates.  While he has not made the most of his chances in those two seasons, his performance was good enough to warrant a starting nod this year.  With job security, Brown has exploded onto the scene with 17 homers and 42 RBI’s.  His OBP has not jumped tremendously, but his average and slugging percentage have due to his power surge and a sense of responsibility with an otherwise anemic Phillies lineup with numerous injuries.  While the going is hot, jump on Domonic Brown.

Clay Bucholz Boston SP 215 19.7

            Bucholz is a starter that has always shown signs of extreme talent and confidence.  A steady starter for the Red Sox since 2007, the gangly Texan has exceeded expectations for a starter going between the 19’Th and 20’Th rounds of standard drafts.  Coming off a subpar season with a 4.56 ERA, .263 BAA, and 6.1 K/9, Bucholz has settled down this season.  He holds a 8.9 K/9, but don’t expect that to hold up as his history shows a regression to more of a 6-7 K/9 rate.  His ERA has plummeted to a stingy 1.62 and has dropped his WHIP from 1.33 to 1.02.  As a result, he has started the season 8-0 in his first 11 starts and teamed with Jon Lester to re-form to one of the top 1-2 punches in the Majors.  The Red Sox are 10-1 in his 11 starts and as a result, has fueled the team to a 35-23 record and a 2.5 game lead over the Orioles and Yankees.  

From Now to the All Star Break: Top Players

The month of June is Joyous time of the year, School is finishing up, summer vacations are just around the corner and the baseball season is already a third of the way through With the All Star Break only a month away. It is this time of year when we have a clearer view of what may be in store for the remainder of the season and are more realistic than optimistic for certain fantasy players’ production. So for June, I ask you to fire up the barbecue, grab a cold drink, dust off the patio furniture and enjoy my top players to start on any given day leading up to the All Star break.  

Dominic Brown OF, Philadelphia Phillies

Mentioned prior to the season as one of the top fantasy sleepers heading into 2013, Brown enjoyed a productive spring training followed by a relatively slow April with a line of 8 R, 3 HR, 11 RBI,0 SB, .233 AVG. Unlike prior seasons, the Phillies organizations stuck with him and he rewarded their faith by posting stellar numbers (17 R, 12 HR, 25 RBI, 3 SB, .303 AVG) while earning N.L player of the month honours. His success has continued into June and his recent production can no longer be considered a hot streak rather, expected numbers of a legitimate MVP candidate. The power and the tools are real and were main reasons why Brown was tagged a sleeper over seasons prior but now will remain a top 5 outfielder for the foreseeable future.

Carlos Gonzalez OF, Colorado Rockies

The top outfielder over the course this season, “CARGO” has been a model of consistency posting solid fantasy numbers month to month. A lot of critics will make excuses for his production based on Colorado’s thin air home advantage that causes the ball to explode off of bats into orbit turning average players into fantasy studs. Cargo however, is actually hitting better away from Coors Field much better in fact as he has 11 HR away and only 6 HR at home with a batting average 80 points above his home average. Typically as the season heads deeper into summer, the warm air at Coors provides a boost to hitters so I expect Cargo’s numbers to continue while hitting away and improve even more as the summer drags on which will make him the top outfielder in the game over the remainder of the season and is a must start in all contests leading up to the All-Star break.

Miguel Cabrera 3B, Detroit Tigers

I keep waiting for this mammoth perennial MVP and last year’s Triple Crown Winner to suffer an Albert Pujols like slump but he continues to show no signs of slowing down ever. Leading the Majors with 67 RBI and over the course of his 10 year career his split stats show more than 50 home runs in each month which suggest the production will remain and consider him the top infield and corner option play on any given day.


Jean Segura SS, Milwaukee Brewers

An unknown prior to the start of the season, Segura has proven to be Milwaukee’s best kept secret as he is the #2 Short stop in the majors in 2013 only behind Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki. In his first full season, Segura has been a .342 hitter and on pace for 30 HR and 40 SB. Over the last 30 days Segura has posted better fantasy numbers than Tulowitzki and while Troy offers better power than Segura, Segura can do more on the base baths and for our Amped Fantasy daily contests is a safer bet for points on any given day.

Chris Davis 1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles

Who is the top first baseman in the first 2 months of 2013? If you read the name above this line you may well be surprised that it’s not a familiar household name (Pujols, Fielder, Votto) but that of Baltimore’s Chris Davis, a once promising prospect who fizzled out in Texas and its hitter park of all places.
Texas is a distant memory for Davis however, who enjoyed a career year last year with 33 HR and 85 RBI in his second year with Baltimore. This year Davis already has 20 HR and 52 RBI which puts him on pace to almost double his previous career year. Although he is unlikely to hit over 60 home runs, his split stats show that he is a better hitter prior to the All-Star break than post so start him with confidence until then and expect slightly less but still solid production following the break.

Joe Mauer Catcher, Minnesota Twins

Minnesota has remained relevant over the course of what was expected to be a down year for them with aging or injured veterans and few prospects. Through this, Mauer has continued to be a consistent offensive centerpiece for them and while avoiding the injury bug so far and is a top 3 Catcher. Over the course of his career, the often injured Mauer has been a better pre-All Star hitter than post and in contests that require a catcher; Mauer is a top choice you can hardly find fault with. Mauer is a catcher that often receives starts at 1B and DH to keep him fresh as the season progresses so he is always less likely to be given a random day off.

Justin Sperdakes

Fantasy Expert